If you own a Fremont townhome and heard that the city's condo and townhome median fell 17% in a year, should you take 17% off what you think your home is worth? In October 2026, the median sale price for Fremont condos and townhomes was $890,000. In October 2025 it was $1,075,000, a drop of 17.21%, according to the Bay East Association of REALTORS Fremont condominium and townhome report. That number will show up in offers and pricing talks this winter. It mostly measures something other than what a typical unit is worth.
The other figures in the same report suggest a different explanation. Fewer expensive townhomes sold this year, and more inexpensive condos did. When the mix of homes changes that much, the median moves even if no individual home changed in value.
Thirty-Four Sales Is a Small Base for a Median
In October 2026, 34 condos and townhomes sold in Fremont. The median is the price of the home in the middle of those 34. One month that home might be a one-bedroom condo, and the next month a three-story townhome with a two-car garage.
The swings show how much that matters. Fremont's October condo and townhome median was $715,000 in 2024, $1,075,000 in 2025 and $890,000 in 2026. Read literally, prices rose 50% in one year and fell 17% the next. Within 2026 alone, the median went from $680,000 in September to $890,000 in October, a 31% jump in one month. No one would claim Fremont condos gained almost a third of their value in thirty days. The September-to-October jump came from the same small-sample effect as the year-over-year drop, just in the other direction.
The California Association of REALTORS includes the same caution in its own monthly releases: median price changes can reflect changes in the size and characteristics of the homes that sold, not only changes in value.
Price Per Square Foot Fell About Half as Much
Average price per square foot is less affected by the mix, because a large townhome and a small condo are both measured against their own size. On that measure, the October decline was much smaller.
In October 2025, sold Fremont condos and townhomes averaged $695 per square foot. In October 2026 they averaged $639, a decline of roughly 8%. That's still a real loss for a seller, but it's less than half of what the median suggests. Listings priced off the 17% figure would be priced too low. Offers written off it would be well below where comparable homes have actually traded.
This measure isn't perfect either. A dated unit and a remodeled one can carry very different prices per foot. Even so, it gets much closer to what one Fremont townhome would bring against another than a median based on 34 sales.
The Top Tier of Townhome Sales Mostly Disappeared
The bigger story is in the year-to-date sales by price band. Through October 2026, Fremont had 334 condo and townhome sales, compared with 351 at the same point in 2025. Total volume barely moved. What moved was where those sales landed.
| Fremont condo/townhome sales, Jan–Oct | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $500K | 39 | 28 | 43 |
| $900K–$999K | 24 | 36 | 26 |
| $1M–$1.299M | 89 | 77 | 84 |
| $1.3M–$1.699M | 93 | 59 | 30 |
The $1.3 million to $1.699 million band, where Fremont's largest attached homes sell, went from 93 sales in the first ten months of 2024 to 59 in 2025 and 30 in 2026. That's a two-thirds drop in two years. Over the same period, sales under $500,000 rebounded to 43, the highest of the three years. When the top of the range loses half its sales in a year and the bottom gains about half, the median falls, even if every remaining home sold for about what it would have a year earlier.
Those 30 missing high-end sales may come from buyers who chose not to buy, owners who chose not to list, or homes that sold outside the MLS. This data can't separate those possibilities, and for a buyer or seller the cause matters less than the effect. Fremont's condo median now reflects a market that leans toward smaller, lower-priced units. A seller of a large townhome is being compared against a median that includes fewer homes like theirs.
Regional reporting points the same way. The San Francisco Chronicle reported in July 2026 that wealthy Bay Area buyers, many enriched by the AI boom, were competing for large houses rather than condos. It also reported that rising insurance premiums and deferred renovation costs were pushing East Bay condo HOA dues up quickly. For a buyer weighing a $1.4 million townhome against a house, the monthly HOA is part of that decision.
Detached Houses Show the Same Mix Effect in Reverse
Fremont's detached single-family market shows the same thing, but the mix shift holds the median up instead of pulling it down.
On most measures, the detached market loosened from October 2025 to October 2026, according to Bay East's Fremont detached report:
- Active listings at month-end rose from 81 to 108.
- Months of supply rose from 1.0 to 1.5.
- Sales fell from 79 to 60, down 24.05%.
- Buyers paid 101% of list price on average, down from 103%.
- Average days on market rose from 22 to 24.
Even so, the median detached price in October 2026 was $1,700,000, only 1.45% below the $1,725,000 of a year earlier. Price per square foot slipped from $1,072 to $1,047, about 2%.
The year-to-date bands help explain why the median held. Through October 2026, Fremont recorded 63 detached sales above $3 million, up from 50 a year earlier. Sales from $1 million to $1.299 million rose from 67 to 94. The middle-upper bands shrank: the $1.7 million to $1.999 million range fell from 163 to 134, and the $2 million to $2.999 million range fell from 202 to 179. Both ends of the detached market grew while the upper middle shrank. Growth at the top keeps the median steady even as more inventory piles up.
So both medians give the wrong impression this fall, and they're wrong in opposite directions: attached homes look weaker than their price per foot shows, while houses look steadier than the 33% rise in detached listings would suggest.
Who Has Leverage Going Into Winter
Once you set the medians aside, the remaining figures show where buyers and sellers stand in each segment as of October 2026.
For condos and townhomes, supply is getting tighter. Active listings at month-end fell from 95 to 84 year over year, and months of supply fell from 2.8 to 2.6. Buyers paid 100% of list on average, up from 99%. Supply has also come down over the year. Attached inventory was 142 units in April 2026 with 4.7 months of supply, so October's 2.6 months is a much tighter market than spring. Average days on market was 33 in October. Attached homes have been taking longer to sell than detached ones, but the gap closed noticeably from September's 49 days.
For detached homes, it's the opposite. Sale-to-list ratios declined steadily through the year, from 106% in February and March 2026 to 101% in October. Buyers in the detached market have more room to negotiate than they did in spring, even though Fremont houses are still selling at or slightly above list on average.
The calendar matters too. Last year, Fremont's detached inventory fell from 81 in October 2025 to 54 in November and 32 in December. Attached inventory went from 95 to 71 to 41. If this winter follows that pattern, there will be fewer listings in December than in October. Sellers who list then face less competition, and buyers have fewer homes to choose from.
At the county level, the California Association of REALTORS reported a September 2026 Alameda County median of $1,265,000 for existing detached homes, up 1.2% year over year, with 2.2 months of unsold inventory. It also put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.86% in September, up from 6.35% a year earlier. Higher borrowing costs affect monthly payments in both segments. For a condo buyer, that payment also includes HOA dues.
Quick Answers
Is my Fremont townhome worth 17% less than it was last October? The October 2026 figures don't show that. The 17.21% drop is in the median, which depends on which homes sold. Average sold price per square foot fell about 8%, from $695 to $639. Comparable sales of homes like yours are the better guide.
Why did the Fremont condo median jump from September to October? The median rose from $680,000 in September 2026 to $890,000 in October on 36 and 34 sales. With that few sales, a handful of larger townhomes closing in one month can move the median that much.
Are Fremont houses holding value better than condos? On price per square foot, yes, at least in the October comparison: detached homes were down about 2% year over year, compared with about 8% for condos and townhomes. Detached homes also had more listings, fewer sales and smaller premiums over list price. Houses held their value better, but detached buyers have gained more negotiating room than condo buyers.
If you're pricing a Fremont townhome or making an offer on one this winter, the median is the least useful number to start from. The Joe Schembri Real Estate Team prices attached homes against recent sales of similar homes, by size and price per foot, so the 17% headline doesn't set your price or your offer. Let's Connect.
